Greetings from beautiful downtown Karachi,
Which is being a bit sarcastic in truth, but it has its merits. This time of year, the weather is much better than Islamabad, which can get cold, while here it is usually 60s or 70s and sunny. Also, Karachi has that big city energy, that commerce and trading vibe, that let’s do a deal attitude that makes just crossing the street seem important. And then there are the people; this is true across Pakistan, friendliest people in the world. No kidding, of the more than one hundred countries I’ve been to, Pakistan is the most welcoming. This morning I was walking past a Meezan Bank branch and the manager invited me in for coffee. I don’t have an account there and had never seen him before, but he knew from looking at me that I’m a guest here so he wanted to offer me a conversation and a snack. My guess is that out in the villages it will be even more hospitable. Naturally, I’ll report.
The main reason I’m in Karachi is for marketing. We managed to convince the Pakistan Stock Exchange to let us make a big presentation to their members on investment opportunities in fixed income. We, not so subtly, made a case that institutional investors here should take more risk by rotating from government bonds to corporate bonds and sukuks. I believe that risk is amply rewarded in the current market, and I made a specific trade recommendation; to short government paper with a 2 ½ year maturity and go long the matching Engro sukuk due July 2019. I’ve publicly committed to valuing the trade on April 21st and reporting the outcome here on the website. Surprise, surprise, if it goes well I will broadcast the outcome, big time, as Shakeel would say. If it goes wrong I won’t exactly shut down the website but might just mumble the result, maybe even take a vacation. So, watch this space.
In the picture below you can see me pitching my thesis.
Which is being a bit sarcastic in truth, but it has its merits. This time of year, the weather is much better than Islamabad, which can get cold, while here it is usually 60s or 70s and sunny. Also, Karachi has that big city energy, that commerce and trading vibe, that let’s do a deal attitude that makes just crossing the street seem important. And then there are the people; this is true across Pakistan, friendliest people in the world. No kidding, of the more than one hundred countries I’ve been to, Pakistan is the most welcoming. This morning I was walking past a Meezan Bank branch and the manager invited me in for coffee. I don’t have an account there and had never seen him before, but he knew from looking at me that I’m a guest here so he wanted to offer me a conversation and a snack. My guess is that out in the villages it will be even more hospitable. Naturally, I’ll report.
The main reason I’m in Karachi is for marketing. We managed to convince the Pakistan Stock Exchange to let us make a big presentation to their members on investment opportunities in fixed income. We, not so subtly, made a case that institutional investors here should take more risk by rotating from government bonds to corporate bonds and sukuks. I believe that risk is amply rewarded in the current market, and I made a specific trade recommendation; to short government paper with a 2 ½ year maturity and go long the matching Engro sukuk due July 2019. I’ve publicly committed to valuing the trade on April 21st and reporting the outcome here on the website. Surprise, surprise, if it goes well I will broadcast the outcome, big time, as Shakeel would say. If it goes wrong I won’t exactly shut down the website but might just mumble the result, maybe even take a vacation. So, watch this space.
In the picture below you can see me pitching my thesis.
A friend commented that this was probably the usual advice to buy low, and sell high, implying that it was mostly hot air. Sort of true, but when you offer specific trading positions and prices there is enough value added to justify listening. Again, time will tell.
There was quite a lot of comment on the previous blurb, with particular interest in travel in KPK and questions about security. The funniest response was a friend that wrote, “let’s play spot the white guy.” Looking at the photos now, you notice that I do look awfully pale. That is partly explained by the heat of Islamabad at that time of year and staying inside to keep cool. I’ll be in Thailand next week so the next edition should have me nice and brown. May also take advantage of my heart Shakeel’s photo software expertise and ask him to sweeten my look with whatever enhancements he can think of. Supposedly the big stars have Vaseline put on the lens to reduce ageing; that would be nice. Real contentment probably comes from facing reality and redirecting your vanity to better pursuits.
Apropos of that transition, I must mention a great book I’ve just finished, The Boys in the Boat by Daniel James Brown. This is the story of the US eight-man rowing team at the Berlin Olympics in 1936. You’ll be surprised at how interesting he makes the various movement techniques and training as well as the boat construction and strategy. But for me the fascinating part is the description of life in both countries during the Great Depression. Yet another reminder of how lucky we are (so far). This is one of the best books I’ve read in years, a recommendation.
Well, it’s a little late to say it, but nevertheless, Happy New Year. Hoping it is a good one for all of us and many more to come.
See you soon,
There was quite a lot of comment on the previous blurb, with particular interest in travel in KPK and questions about security. The funniest response was a friend that wrote, “let’s play spot the white guy.” Looking at the photos now, you notice that I do look awfully pale. That is partly explained by the heat of Islamabad at that time of year and staying inside to keep cool. I’ll be in Thailand next week so the next edition should have me nice and brown. May also take advantage of my heart Shakeel’s photo software expertise and ask him to sweeten my look with whatever enhancements he can think of. Supposedly the big stars have Vaseline put on the lens to reduce ageing; that would be nice. Real contentment probably comes from facing reality and redirecting your vanity to better pursuits.
Apropos of that transition, I must mention a great book I’ve just finished, The Boys in the Boat by Daniel James Brown. This is the story of the US eight-man rowing team at the Berlin Olympics in 1936. You’ll be surprised at how interesting he makes the various movement techniques and training as well as the boat construction and strategy. But for me the fascinating part is the description of life in both countries during the Great Depression. Yet another reminder of how lucky we are (so far). This is one of the best books I’ve read in years, a recommendation.
Well, it’s a little late to say it, but nevertheless, Happy New Year. Hoping it is a good one for all of us and many more to come.
See you soon,
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